With Amir Rubin
This study demonstrates that changes in sentiment inequality (SI), defined as the difference in consumer sentiment between high- and low-income groups, can predict the performance of high-end versus low-end product firms. We illustrate this with a case study of how variations in SI can predict the comparative performance of casual dining versus fast-food companies. Across the economy, our hypothesis and evidence suggest that cyclical firms serving higher-income groups outperform or underperform non-cyclical firms following SI increases or decreases, respectively. Additionally, an increase in SI indicates a rise in market return, reinforcing SI's predictive value for macroeconomic dynamics.
With Alexander Vedrashko